IPC MARKET REPORT 33/23, 07 - 11 August 2023

 

KEY HIGHLIGHTS

August 11th 2023

The pepper market this week showed a mix response with only Malaysian local white pepper price reported with a decrease.

The Indian pepper price continued to be reported with an increasing trend since mid-July. The increase could be contributed to the upcoming festival season in India which resulted in an increased demand for black pepper.

Both local and international prices for Indonesia reported with an increasing trend this week as some areas in Lampung reported to start harvesting.

Only Malaysian local white pepper reported with a decreasing trend this week. Whilst, the others reported stable and unchanged.

The local price for Sri Lankan pepper continued to be reported with an increasing trend for the last four (4) weeks.

The Vietnamese local price continued to be reported with an increasing trend since last week. Whilst, the Vietnamese international price remained stable and unchanged as the market was quiet. 

Allspice Pimento 2023 Crop - Mexican Update

August 10th, 2023
Just received from one of our good suppliers a report about mexican Allspice Crop & Harvest

Concerning Allspice market situation, let me comment you that the harvest time arrived very late because there were not rains on time of almost any of the productions areas; the trees look good, they have grains and it seems that we could have a good crop, however the collection is very slow and is not constant because not all the trees are ready to be collected and the collection did not begin in a specific area but in specific trees that are ready to be collected.

In the local market, the prices began to increase even before to start the harvest time and now they are very speculative and increasing almost every day, even when we are not in the collection yet. For that reason we consider that we will require at least another week to have more collection and wait until the price can be more stable.

Bottom line is Guatemala and Mexican prices are all very firm still, despite the markets being somewhat in vacation mode. Will see what happens when demand comes back in full

We are ready  to offer 2023 crop Allspice Pimento of  Mexico or Guatemala origin

Cardamom prices soar on deficient monsoon, crop shortage

 

August 10, 2023 

After black pepper, it is now the turn of cardamom to witness a price surge reportedly on speculative buying. The rates soared to ₹2,250 per kg in the Puttady auction centre in Kerala without bringing any benefits to the farming community due to crop shortage.

After Covid-19, the cardamom market has been witnessing a reverse trend with prices plummeting to below ₹1,000, prompting farmers to neglect the crop because of rising production cost. It was in August 2019 that prices touched a record high of ₹7,000.

PC Punnoose, managing director of CPMCS Ltd. at Kumily, cited the delayed and deficient monsoon, especially in the growing belt of Kerala’s Idukki, as the reason for prices to move up. May and June are considered as the time for surplus rains, but hardly any showers during the period, instead a dry spell which led to heavy droppings in plantations and it impacted production.

Delayed plucking

Normally, it would take 90 days for the flowers to mature, but deficient rains in this season has hit plant settings and it resulted in delayed plucking. The first round of harvest was over by July-end and the next round will all depend on a conducive weather.

It looks like climate change and weather is going to dictate the direction of the market. With El Nino strengthening, we may not see rains from December of 2023 till April 2024 contributing to further reduction in crop and increase in prices”, said SB Prabhakar, a cardamom planter in Idukki.

The growing tracts have received a deficit of 70 per cent in June, 25 per cent in July and around 40 per cent till date in August. As the South-West monsoon is the main flowering months, the overall crop is expected to drop 25-30 per cent at a minimum in the current season.

Speculative buying on

If there is a deficit again in this period, it will lead to a further reduction in crop and an increase in prices up to ₹3000 level. If rains become bountiful later in August and September, he said, adding that prices should stabilise at around ₹2,000-2,300 levels.

However, trading sources said the market is witnessing speculative buying mainly from Kerala traders in anticipation of a further price hike. The offered quantities in auction centre are on an average 100 tonnes per day.

The consuming centres in the Gulf markets and upcountry are hardly having any stocks and they are all waiting for the raw material. But the crop shortage and rising prices is hitting them hard, especially with the festival season is around.

Cardamom prices soar on deficient monsoon, crop shortage - The Hindu BusinessLine

Black pepper has turned hot in the recent weeks on speculative buying

 

August 8, 2023

The Hindu BusinessLine

Black pepper has turned hot in the recent weeks on speculative buying amidst concerns of delayed crop setting due to the erratic rainfall pattern in the key producing regions of Karnataka and Kerala.

Prices which hovered around the ₹480-500 a kg levels for a long time have increased to ₹ 603 for the ungarbled and ₹623 for the garbled varieties in the Kochi terminal market. However, prices are still short of the record ₹700 per kg witnessed during 2016.

The surge in prices is not seen benefiting growers because of the limited availability as most of them have sold their produce, while some are holding back in anticipation of further increase.

Kishore Shamji, President of India Pepper and Spice Trade Association (IPSTA), said Indian pepper is out-priced in the world market because of the higher prices of $7,700 per tonne, whereas Sri Lankan crop is available at $6,700 and Vietnam at $3,700.

He alleged that a cartel, which is behind hiking the prices of turmeric and cumin, is pushing up pepper prices as well.

Above floor price

The farming community fears that the higher prices in the domestic market might pave the way for more imports from Sri Lanka. Domestic prices are currently ruling above minimum import price of ₹500 per kg. There are also concerns that pepper from Brazil and Vietnam may enter the Indian market via Sri Lanka by paying the 8 per cent duty in view of the surging domestic demand which is estimated at 85,000 tonnes, Shamji said.

“Due to the scarce availability, the pepper imports into the country are likely to rise. If the prices continue to move up, lot of pepper will flow into India from countries such as Vietnam, but the growers will not benefit,” said KK Vishwanath, Convenor of the Consortium of Pepper Growers’ Organisation.

Subdued demand

According to Shamji, the demand for black pepper across overseas markets was subdued especially in China, the US and the UK because of the slowdown. At the same time, the Indian economy is booming with a burgeoning demand especially from masala manufacturers . 

Referring to production, Shamji said the climate change will have an impact on pepper cultivation across producing countries including India which are reporting a lower crop in the current season. For instance, Brazil has brought down production figures this season.

Mahesh Shashidhar, Chairman, Karnataka Planters’ Association, said the erratic rainfall pattern during the pre-monsoon and early part of the monsoon has impacted the flowering of pepper and the crop setting is seen delayed by few weeks.

https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/pepper-turns-hot-on-speculative-buying-concerns-of-delayed-crop-setting/article67172836.ece

Jeera dropped on profit booking after prices gained as supply is limited

 2023-08-08

Jeera yesterday settled down by -0.45% at 63115 on profit booking after prices gained as supply is limited due to the rainy environment. However, the cumin market is currently facing slow export and domestic demand. Due to heavy rains impacting cumin quality, there have been disruptions in the cumin business across Gujarat, Rajasthan, and other regions. China’s cumin imports and exports have caused temporary corrections in cumin prices, with a recent $200 decrease in the international market. The possibility of China purchasing Indian cumin in October-November before the arrival of new cumin adds further uncertainty to the market dynamics. Cumin imports in May 2023 reached 210 metric tons, showing a substantial increase of 227.73% compared to the previous month's import volume of 64 metric tons.

According to FISS forecasts, cumin demand is predicted to exceed 85 lakh bags this year, with a likely supply of 65 lakh bags. Jeera exports during Apr-May 2023, rose by 67.90 per cent at 42,988.50 tonnes as compared to 25,603.35 tonnes exported during Apr-May 2022. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 17,084.87 tonnes in April 2023 showing a rise of 51.52%. In May 2023 around 25,903.63 tonnes of jeera was exported as against 14,894.62 tonnes in May 2022 showing a rise of 73.91%. In Unjha, a key spot market in Gujarat, jeera edged down by -139.4 Rupees to end at 62044.3 Rupees per 100 kg.

Technically market is under fresh selling as the market has witnessed a gain in open interest by 14.76% to settle at 4713 while prices are down -285 rupees, now Jeera is getting support at 62740 and below same could see a test of 62370 levels, and resistance is now likely to be seen at 63740, a move above could see prices testing 64370.

Kedia Advisory

Commodities News

2023-08-08 03:45

R&G Monthly Pepper Market Updates W31

Vietnam seen firmer today as market opened with raw material price at 72,5 VND/kg an uptrend by about 3,5% from opening week 30  level.
Small demand was mostly seen from Asian importers specifically from China and Pakistan buyers, while USA and EU are still on a look out for Q4/Q1-2024.
Covering from some shippers were also reported with few to no offers of raw materials from local suppliers which prompted shippers to also be inactive last week. 

Indonesia still stable with few demands, mostly for forward positions. Speculators were also seen buying.

Brazil facing difficulty in buying raw materials from the field amid harvest seasons.
Offers are very limited from shippers who are still trying to cover their earlier booked contracts while farmers are holding their offers prompting shippers to stop offering ending week 30.

Although good production is expected, harvest is slow and delayed due to coffee crop that is being prioritized.
Market is showing firmness, but we could expect it to cool down later on (also if forex rates cooperate) due to good crop size in this region and as well as Para region that is also on going. 

From this origin, specifically from Vitoria port where most cargoes are loaded, apparently having serious issue with lack of containers and limited vessel availability.
This is now causing dilemma with both coffee and pepper exporters. 

Another issue that is brewing is climate change that could cost a potent economic storm. 
Reports of extreme weather condition in southern Europe and North Africa this month suffering from sweltering heat while in some countries, thunderous storms leading to flooding in others. 
Further consequence to negatively impact the crop that may lead to further food inflation  worldwide

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Vietnam pepper market update 31st July 2023 – Week 30

 

The price of pepper from India increased by 20% in the past week. The main reason is the sudden increase in demand from the domestic market. Besides, the Kerala region is the main pepper production area of India, the heavy rain has made the crop forecast to decrease by 30-32%.

Besides, the price of pepper in Brazil also increased by 10% in the past 2 weeks. Many information forecast that Brazil's crop will be reduced by 15-20% compared to the 2022 crop. This has caused farmers/dealers to increase hoarding and less offer to sell to the market.