Pepper
market has continuously increased this month from VND 38,000 in early
May to VND 48,500 at the present. Price increase was up to 28% within 25
days and up from the bottom of 35.5% (VND 34,500) within 2 months. A
jump in prices is beyond the expectation of almost all pepper producers
and exporters not only in Vietnam but also worldwide. The market
increased last time mainly due to the following reasons;
-
After lock down due to the Covid-19 epidemic, Chinese customers
returned to buy both black and white pepper in huge quantities (March
and April bought above 20.000 tones and May is around above 10.000
metric tones) . In particular, white pepper is being bought by many and
continuously.
-
Pepper was low level and is considered to have been at the bottom
already (VND 34,500 - 1,510$), so many speculators actively bought huge
quantities of stock. This also contributed significantly to the price
increase last time.
-
Due to the Covid - 19, some countries producing and exporting pepper
have been continuously restricted as harvesting, processing, freight
forwarding, logistic service. This also makes pepper sometimes suddenly
shortage in each different time.
-
At low prices and a lot of farmers making losses, many farmers have
left and do not continue to take care of pepper as the previous time,
besides the weather in the pepper areas is drought. Therefore, pepper
production in 2021 is maybe less than the 2020 crop.
-
Many exporters sold short for long time shipments who have not covered
raw material yet. They have to buy to ensure time of shipment.
-
Some big oversea customers have not yet purchased enough quantity for
orders in the 3rd & 4th quarters, so they continue to participate in
the market in the coming month.
-
At present, the situation in Vietnam is controlling Covid 19 quite
well. Transportation service, logistics smoothly and quickly. Therefore
the oversea demand for spice products in Vietnam is gradually
increasing.
-
Although the inventories of Vietnam pepper are still quite large,
however, we assess that the pressure of circulation of these inventories
is very low due to being scattered from farmers, middlemen, exporters
... They are not in a hurry to sell or be ready to freeze inventory if
the market price decreases.
-
Even at this level many farmers/collectors still think attractive and
they have been buying more quantity to stockpiling from last week until
now.
-
Currently, it is almost the only Vietnam can supply a large quantity to
the market while Indonesia and Brazil are offering very limited and not
possible prompt shipment. Therefore, the demand for Vietnamese pepper
is expected to continue to increase until next July at least (Indonesia
harvests in July, Brazil harvests the second crop in August 2020).
-
Contrary to many other pepper exporting countries, Vietnam's currency
has been consistently stronger than the USD with a 1% over the past
week, that makes pepper prices also up.
In my opinion, pepper prices will continue uptrend until the end of June/July. There will be some short-term corrections in July/August.
##черный_перец #специи #μπαχαρικά #μαύρο πιπέρι #توابل #فلفل اسود #मसाले #काली मिर्च #Gewürze #schwarzer Pfeffer #နံ့သာမျိုး #ငရုတ်ကောင်း #baharat #karabiber #vietnampepper #مصالحے #
WHATSAPP +5511988027709
MAIL manager@peppertrade.com.br
TWITTER : https://twitter.com/peppertrade
In my opinion, pepper prices will continue uptrend until the end of June/July. There will be some short-term corrections in July/August.
##черный_перец #специи #μπαχαρικά #μαύρο πιπέρι #توابل #فلفل اسود #मसाले #काली मिर्च #Gewürze #schwarzer Pfeffer #နံ့သာမျိုး #ငရုတ်ကောင်း #baharat #karabiber #vietnampepper #مصالحے #
WHATSAPP +5511988027709
MAIL manager@peppertrade.com.br
TWITTER : https://twitter.com/peppertrade
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