Friday, January 31, 2020

#BlackPepper - First Report after Lunar New Year



Vietnam;
exported in the first half of January 2020 around 9,496 tons of pepper and possible export over 16,000 tons in January. That will be less than the same period 2019 (exported 19,773 tons) because Vietnam has a long holiday from 23rd to the end of January 2020.
Pepper market in general has slightly decreased because the carryover is still available while the new crop has started to harvest. It is expected that after a week more Daklak area will start to harvest, Daknong starting fully swing during this time. The supply of material to the market to be quite abundant from now to the end of March 2020.
However, it is difficult to predict the price when the pepper price is already very low, many farmers are at a loss and do not take care of the pepper plantation as before.
Manufacturers and exporters are quite cautious and rarely sell big short as in previous years because this price is not attractive, the profit margin is too low while the risk is high.

India;
According to Cogencis, Pepper harvest in Kerala state has officially started in January 2020, but the output and quality of pepper are low due to adverse weather. Crop size in 2020 is forecast to increase by 30% from last year to 61,000 - 62,000 tons due to favorable weather in Kerala state.
According to Indian experts, pepper prices may decrease in the period February - March after the states of Kerala and Karnataka in the main season.
Brazil
:In Brazil the strong fluctuations in the exchange rate in the last week, has contributed to some discounts below the level of the last week.
Against this favorable news for the importer, a week of heavy rains in ES(Port of Vitoria), affected the harvest and the delivery of dry black pepper and the weather forecast for February is not favorable
Further, the short availability of free containers and complicated documents processing are delaying contracted shipments.
The heavy rains cause a decrease in supply of pepper to local market, processors and exporters

It is generally understood that 60% to 70% of the ES crop has already been harvested.


Large consumer market;

China; Under the influence of the Corona virus and currently on the occasion of the Lunar New Year, almost all international border gates with Vietnam have closed. The quota trade with the pepper market was temporarily suspended. Demand for pepper from China, is expected to be very low/absent in the next 1-2 weeks.
America; High demand for whole year shipment, especially with delivery period in the second half of 2020. However, prices are not really attractive and risky, so some exporters in Vietnam are still hesitant.
Nepal & the Middle East; Great demand for 5mm bold berries pepper with immediate shipment while limited supply and raw material.
EU; Focus on buying with spot orders and not much quantity.













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