#PEPPER #INDIA - Limited offtake drives pepper prices down

Kochi  March 02, 2020

Limited offtake by end-users and improved arrivals hammered pepper prices down by ₹8 a kg in Kochi last week.

The market was also down by ₹1 on Monday on the arrival of 72 tonnes and the average price realised was ₹309 for ungarbled varieties. MG1 garbled variety was quoted at ₹329, while new pepper stood at ₹299.

According to Kishore Shamji of Kishor Spices, pepper from Coorg and Wayanad with moderate demand from end-users was sold. Dealers from Delhi, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh were not buying because of riots in the capital city.

However, cold conditions in northern India is keeping demand stable. Consumption in the domestic market has gone up to 5,000-6,000 tonnes a month, which could be met by domestic production, he said.

Shamji said imports from Sri Lanka have come down to 69 tonnes in January. February figures are yet to be known. However, traders voiced concern over the reported move by Sri Lanka and Vietnam to impress upon Indian government to withdraw the minimum import price imposed on pepper, which would enable these countries to dump their produce in the domestic market.

Though arrivals from Karnataka and Wayanad have picked up, traders said availability of Karnataka pepper was limited with good buying interest for pepper with bulk density above 550gm per litre.

A section of the trade speculates that the market is likely to drop to ₹250 per kg in Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh on higher production, Shamji said.

V Sajeev Kumar
The HindubusinessLine

WHATSAPP +5511988027709
MAIL manager@peppertrade.com.br
TWITTER : https://twitter.com/peppertrade

PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 2ND MARCH 2020 – WEEK 10

Vietnam pepper price has increased by 10% in the past two weeks. The price of material from the VND 36,500 has increased to VND 40,000 today. Despite being in the harvest season, raw material prices continue to rise steadily due to the following main reasons;

- At these level, many farmers are at a loss, almost all consider storing pepper. Farmers and domestic agent prefer to sell other agricultural products like Coffee to cover temporary costs and store as much pepper as possible. As their perspective, pepper is the most attractive to invest compared to other agricultural products.

- Pepper price is at low level, it has stimulated many exporters/agents to buy stocks. Especially, there are large enterprises with FDI capital actively participating and pushing the market up sharply in the past week. Pepper harvesting fully swing in all area in Vietnam however it is not easy to buy large quantities from last week.

- Although cross-border transactions with China are still very difficult and costly, there have been some Chinese businessmen buying and stockpiling in Vietnam. They feeling pepper price was good and waiting for better clearance opportunities. It’s stimulated the market to increased until now.

- Several exporters are big short and have to buying raw material in secret for the ordered in the first quarter 2020.

China The situation of Corona Virus has been better controlled and real demand is gradually returning to the border. However, customs clearance is still slow due to many procedures and costs.

India In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with a 2% deficit as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 4,372 per Mt.

Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with a 2% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week.

Malaysian black and white pepper were also traded domestically with a 2% and 1% deficit respectively as opposed to the previous week.

Sri Lanka black pepper was reported steady at an average of USD 2,929 per Mt.

Brazil  Continue to offer competitive prices but not much quantity. The Brazilian currency, which has depreciated against the US dollar by more than 10% since january, has also kept Brazil pepper prices at low level. However, we would not be surprised if the Brazilian market continues to increase follow Vietnam.

WHATSAPP +5511988027709
MAIL manager@peppertrade.com.br
TWITTER : https://twitter.com/peppertrade

#BlackPepper - First Report after Lunar New Year

Vietnam; exported in the first half of January 2020 around 9,496 tons of pepper and possible export over 16,000 tons in January. That will be less than the same period 2019 (exported 19,773 tons) because Vietnam has a long holiday from 23rd to the end of January 2020.

Pepper market in general has slightly decreased because the carryover is still available while the new crop has started to harvest. It is expected that after a week more Daklak area will start to harvest, Daknong starting fully swing during this time. The supply of material to the market to be quite abundant from now to the end of March 2020.

However, it is difficult to predict the price when the pepper price is already very low, many farmers are at a loss and do not take care of the pepper plantation as before.

Manufacturers and exporters are quite cautious and rarely sell big short as in previous years because this price is not attractive, the profit margin is too low while the risk is high.

India; According to Cogencis, Pepper harvest in Kerala state has officially started in January 2020, but the output and quality of pepper are low due to adverse weather. Crop size in 2020 is forecast to increase by 30% from last year to 61,000 - 62,000 tons due to favorable weather in Kerala state.

According to Indian experts, pepper prices may decrease in the period February - March after the states of Kerala and Karnataka in the main season.
Brazil:In Brazil the strong fluctuations in the exchange rate in the last week, has contributed to some discounts below the level of the last week.
Against this favorable news for the importer, a week of heavy rains in ES(Port of Vitoria), affected the harvest and the delivery of dry black pepper and the weather forecast for February is not favorable
Further, the short availability of free containers and complicated documents processing are delaying contracted shipments.
The heavy rains cause a decrease in supply of pepper to local market, processors and exporters

It is generally understood that 60% to 70% of the ES crop has already been harvested.

Large consumer market;

China; Under the influence of the Corona virus and currently on the occasion of the Lunar New Year, almost all international border gates with Vietnam have closed. The quota trade with the pepper market was temporarily suspended. Demand for pepper from China, is expected to be very low/absent in the next 1-2 weeks.

America; High demand for whole year shipment, especially with delivery period in the second half of 2020. However, prices are not really attractive and risky, so some exporters in Vietnam are still hesitant.

Nepal & the Middle East; Great demand for 5mm bold berries pepper with immediate shipment while limited supply and raw material.

EU; Focus on buying with spot orders and not much quantity.

WHATSAPP +5511988027709
MAIL manager@peppertrade.com.br
TWITTER : https://twitter.com/peppertrade

TRYING TO UNDERSTAND BLACK PEPPER MARKET

A Client asked me today:

" Why Brazilian Black Pepper has been cheaper then Vietnam for such long time ?
I´ve been in the market for 6 years now and I never seen such situation !"

Well, neither I know.
I´ve been trying to understand the reasons but cannot find a reasonable answers for 2 questions:
Why brazilian pepper had been cheaper for all year long, and
Why Pepper price in general decreased that much in the last seasons ?

Average prices for B1 550g black pepper in 2002 were U$D 1,500/ton
Than in 2006/2007 it started to rise to U$D1,800 /U$R 2,000 / U$D 2,250... ended the 2007 quoted at U$D 3,700
After a relatively smooth 2008 and 2009 it climbed to U$D 4,200 at the end of 2010.
Beginning 2011 it went from U$D4,200 to U$D 7,000 and from then it was always quoted in the range ofU$  7 - 8,000, with a peak of U$D 9,000 in 2015.
In the middle of2017 it started to fall ending the year at U$D 3,600 and now is averaging U$D 2,000 - back to 12 years ago !
If inflation is considered, the present price is even lower that the one of 2002.

WHY ??? What happened to pull the prices to such behaviour ?  And what´s is to come now ???

Therefore I invite you to write a guess about these 2 questions and further try to make a preview for the next year or even more extended. Please write to manager@peppertrade.com.br

The answers for these questions will be published on our blog and FB page, and if you desire we´ll mention your name and mail adress.

Let´s see if we find a consensus

Thank you all
Michail Wagapoff

--