TRYING TO UNDERSTAND BLACK PEPPER MARKET

A Client asked me today:

" Why Brazilian Black Pepper has been cheaper then Vietnam for such long time ?
I´ve been in the market for 6 years now and I never seen such situation !"

Well, neither I know.
I´ve been trying to understand the reasons but cannot find a reasonable answers for 2 questions:
Why brazilian pepper had been cheaper for all year long, and
Why Pepper price in general decreased that much in the last seasons ?

Average prices for B1 550g black pepper in 2002 were U$D 1,500/ton
Than in 2006/2007 it started to rise to U$D1,800 /U$R 2,000 / U$D 2,250... ended the 2007 quoted at U$D 3,700
After a relatively smooth 2008 and 2009 it climbed to U$D 4,200 at the end of 2010.
Beginning 2011 it went from U$D4,200 to U$D 7,000 and from then it was always quoted in the range ofU$  7 - 8,000, with a peak of U$D 9,000 in 2015.
In the middle of2017 it started to fall ending the year at U$D 3,600 and now is averaging U$D 2,000 - back to 12 years ago !
If inflation is considered, the present price is even lower that the one of 2002.

WHY ??? What happened to pull the prices to such behaviour ?  And what´s is to come now ???

Therefore I invite you to write a guess about these 2 questions and further try to make a preview for the next year or even more extended. Please write to manager@peppertrade.com.br

The answers for these questions will be published on our blog and FB page, and if you desire we´ll mention your name and mail adress.

Let´s see if we find a consensus

Thank you all
Michail Wagapoff

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