PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 2ND MARCH 2020 – WEEK 10

Vietnam pepper price has increased by 10% in the past two weeks. The price of material from the VND 36,500 has increased to VND 40,000 today. Despite being in the harvest season, raw material prices continue to rise steadily due to the following main reasons;

- At these level, many farmers are at a loss, almost all consider storing pepper. Farmers and domestic agent prefer to sell other agricultural products like Coffee to cover temporary costs and store as much pepper as possible. As their perspective, pepper is the most attractive to invest compared to other agricultural products.

- Pepper price is at low level, it has stimulated many exporters/agents to buy stocks. Especially, there are large enterprises with FDI capital actively participating and pushing the market up sharply in the past week. Pepper harvesting fully swing in all area in Vietnam however it is not easy to buy large quantities from last week.

- Although cross-border transactions with China are still very difficult and costly, there have been some Chinese businessmen buying and stockpiling in Vietnam. They feeling pepper price was good and waiting for better clearance opportunities. It’s stimulated the market to increased until now.

- Several exporters are big short and have to buying raw material in secret for the ordered in the first quarter 2020.

China The situation of Corona Virus has been better controlled and real demand is gradually returning to the border. However, customs clearance is still slow due to many procedures and costs.

India In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with a 2% deficit as compared to the previous week, averaging at USD 4,372 per Mt.

Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with a 2% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week.

Malaysian black and white pepper were also traded domestically with a 2% and 1% deficit respectively as opposed to the previous week.

Sri Lanka black pepper was reported steady at an average of USD 2,929 per Mt.

Brazil  Continue to offer competitive prices but not much quantity. The Brazilian currency, which has depreciated against the US dollar by more than 10% since january, has also kept Brazil pepper prices at low level. However, we would not be surprised if the Brazilian market continues to increase follow Vietnam.

WHATSAPP +5511988027709
MAIL manager@peppertrade.com.br
TWITTER : https://twitter.com/peppertrade

Black pepper in Brazil January 17, 2019

This Thursday and Friday a "bunch"of enquiries was arriving for Brazilian Black Pepper, from different buyers (or agents) to different exporters all trying to  get cheap price.

Actually it is unknown the exact number of enquiries because one buyer usually asks 2 or 3 or 4 suppliers. They go to the market and create an illusion of a big demand.


Anyhow bids @1875, 1850 and even 1800 abound. However this fact has a contrary effect -such activity actualy turns the market stronger, with some reliable exporters stepping out waiting how things will evolve next week.
This because beyond new orders, there are exporters that sold short at the end of the year and now try to cover their commitments.


All-in-one this situation signals an uprising trend in  Brazilian Pepper price.
With Vietnam beginning the new Year celebrations a clearer picture might be seen ofter 2 weeks time.
MW

TRYING TO UNDERSTAND BLACK PEPPER MARKET

A Client asked me today:

" Why Brazilian Black Pepper has been cheaper then Vietnam for such long time ?
I´ve been in the market for 6 years now and I never seen such situation !"

Well, neither I know.
I´ve been trying to understand the reasons but cannot find a reasonable answers for 2 questions:
Why brazilian pepper had been cheaper for all year long, and
Why Pepper price in general decreased that much in the last seasons ?

Average prices for B1 550g black pepper in 2002 were U$D 1,500/ton
Than in 2006/2007 it started to rise to U$D1,800 /U$R 2,000 / U$D 2,250... ended the 2007 quoted at U$D 3,700
After a relatively smooth 2008 and 2009 it climbed to U$D 4,200 at the end of 2010.
Beginning 2011 it went from U$D4,200 to U$D 7,000 and from then it was always quoted in the range ofU$  7 - 8,000, with a peak of U$D 9,000 in 2015.
In the middle of2017 it started to fall ending the year at U$D 3,600 and now is averaging U$D 2,000 - back to 12 years ago !
If inflation is considered, the present price is even lower that the one of 2002.

WHY ??? What happened to pull the prices to such behaviour ?  And what´s is to come now ???

Therefore I invite you to write a guess about these 2 questions and further try to make a preview for the next year or even more extended. Please write to manager@peppertrade.com.br

The answers for these questions will be published on our blog and FB page, and if you desire we´ll mention your name and mail adress.

Let´s see if we find a consensus

Thank you all
Michail Wagapoff

--