BRIEF PICTURE OF THE SITUATION OF BLACK PEPPER IN BRAZIL

MAY 15, 2020

Pepper in Brazil is scarce now as the harvest in Espirito Santo finished and the new crop in Belem will start in July/August.
Some stock is been kept by the growers but due to scarcity asked prices are hight.

In the last weeks the CORONA issue impacted heavily on pepper trade in Brazil causing delays in processing, transportation and port operations such as inspections and loading/unloading due to strong reduction of the workforce.

These are problems common to the whole world now but, in Brazil has particular issues of the political strugle against the President Bolsonaro which cause a big indefinition about the economy,
As a result of this political unrest, Dollar rates are absolutelly volatile with daily changes of upt to 2% - 3%.
Growers and stock holders try to get maximum price following and oftenly even surpassing de Dollar appreciation.
Therefore business is very difficult to settle.

Some esxporters that sold future shipments are short and struggling to honour their commitments.
In the words of one exporter "he offers price within 10 minutes validity" because growers change prices by hour.
If not confirmed at once the price is not valid anymore. Earlier this week business was done at U$D 1,900 FOB but today it would be impossible to make it at U$D 2,000.

Pepper at farmgate rose 28% from last week to yesterday and more 10% today.

Bottom line is: If you get a suitable offer book it immediatelly ! or consider wait for some weeks to see if market stabilize.
General trend is upwards, and we might see prices way over U$D 2,000 in the next months.

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IPC PEPPER MARKET REPORT No. 18/20, 27 April - 1 May 2020

LOCAL MARKETS

Market this week showed a rather positive outlook as only India origin was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,121 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week, averaging at USD 1,622 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,823 per Mt for white pepper. The slight increase of Indonesia pepper could be contributed to the strengthening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (IDR 15,413 @ USD 1). Malaysia's black and white peppers were also reported with an increase of 1% respectively when compared to the previous week with an average of USD 1,701 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,052 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,649 per Mt whilst Viet Nam white pepper was reported stable and unchanged. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 3% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,680 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable and unchanged.

INTERNATIONAL MARKET

International market also showed a rather positive outlook as only India origin was reported with a decrease. India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,385 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,005 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,358 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable and unchanged. China white pepper was reported steady and also unchanged.
Trade activity in US market this week was reported with moving slow due to the pandemic of corona virus with a wishful prospect the next month business will recommence though grinder/trading house stock limited. 

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IPC REPORTS - EXPORT OF PEPPER BY SPAIN

Spain, officially the Kingdom of Spain, is located in Europe with its continental European territory is situated on the Iberian Peninsula. Its territory also includes two archipelagoes: the Canary Islands off the coast of Africa, and the Balearic Islands in the Mediterranean Sea make Spain the only European country to have a physical border with an African country (Morocco). Furthermore, Spain actively imports pepper from various pepper producing countries for domestic consumption or for re-export.
In 2018, Spain was reported to have imported a total of 5,280 Mt which 90% of it comprised of whole pepper. In the following year, Spain import of pepper increased by 10%, totaling at 5,789 Mt. The ratio of Spain's import and export during 2018-January 2019 are 2:1 respectively. As of January 2020, Spain was reported to have imported a total of 553 Mt of which 226 Mt went for re-export purposes. The top five countries of origins of Spain pepper both for whole and ground for January 2020 were reported to be Viet Nam with 220 Mt, Brazil with 149 Mt, Ecuador with 49 Mt, Belgium with 31 Mt and India with 29 Mt.
In 2018, Spain was reported to have exported a total of 3,267 Mt of pepper from which 34% or 1,112 Mt of it comprised of whole pepper and 66% or 2,155 Mt of it ground pepper. Spain on average exported a total of 272 Mt per month in 2018 which peaked in May with 432 Mt. The total revenue of Spain's export of pepper in 2018 was reported to be as high as USD 14.6 Million. Thus, recording an average price of the total pepper exported by Spain at USD 4,419 per Mt for whole pepper and USD 4,516 per Mt for ground pepper.
Year 2019 saw a decrease in term of quantity of pepper exported by Spain. Spain was reported to have exported a total of 2,991 Mt of which 29% or 877 Mt of it comprised of whole pepper and 71% or 2,115 Mt of it ground pepper, recording a decrease of 8% when compared with 2018. The average export of pepper by Spain in 2019 was reported to be at 249 Mt per month which peaked in March with 379 Mt. In accordance with decreasing in terms of quantity, Spain's revenue from pepper export was also reported with a decreased by 23% as compared to the previous year to a total of USD 11.2 Million. Thus, recording an average price of the total pepper exported by Spain at USD 4,095 per Mt for whole pepper and USD 3,637 per Mt for ground pepper or a decrease by 7% and 19% respectively as compared to 2018.
As of January 2020, Spain was reported to have exported a total of 226 Mt which 24% or 55 Mt of it comprised of whole pepper and 76% or 171 Mt of it ground pepper. Thus, recording a decrease of 13% when compared to the same period in 2019. As of January 2020, the total revenue of pepper export by Spain was reported to have reached USD 764,000, recording a decrease by 20% as compared to the same period in 2019. The average price of the total pepper exported by Spain as of January 2020 was reported at USD 4,690 per Mt for whole pepper and USD 2,959 per Mt for ground pepper.
Pepper from Spain is widely traded in Europe, Africa and America. As of January 2020, Spain's top 5 Country of destinations for its pepper were reported to be Italy with 54 Mt (an increase of 122% as compared to the same period in 2019), France with 43 Mt (an increase of 71%), Portugal with 38 Mt (an increase of 259%), Egypt with 25 Mt (2019 N.A.) and United Kingdom with 10 Mt (an increase of 283%). 

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IPC - #PEPPER MARKET REPORT No. 16/20, 13 - 17 April 2020

LOCAL MARKET
Market this week showed a positive response with Indonesia origin reported with the highest increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 4,159 per Mt. Following the strengthening of the Indonesian rupiah against US Dollar by 4% as compared to last week's average, Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 8% and 4% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 1,591 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,737 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia's black and white pepper were reported stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 1,594 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,381 per Mt for white pepper. As a result of the strengthening of Sri Lankan Rupee against US Dollar, Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with an increase of 3% as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,732 per Mt. China white pepper was reported with a slight increase of 1% and was traded at an average of USD 4,263 per Mt locally.

INTERNATIONAL MARKET

International market also showed a positive outlook as only India and Malaysia origin were reported stable. India black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,421 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 8% and 4% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,967 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,258 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 2%, 2% and 1% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,090 per Mt, USD 2,120 per Mt and USD 3,020 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as opposed to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 4,463 per Mt internationally.

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IPC MARKET REPORT - No. 15/20, 6 - 10 April 2020

As the total death from COVID-19 outbreak nearly reached 100,000 people, many countries enforced more rigorous measures in trying to lessen the spread of the Virus. Indonesia reportedly implemented a large-scale social restriction in their capital city which would last for the next two weeks, as market this week showed a mixed response. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,177 per Mt. The decrease of Malabar black pepper price could be contributed to the weakening of Indian Rupee against US Dollar. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with a slight increase by 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 1,467 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,628 per Mt for white pepper. The increase of Indonesia black and white pepper price could be contributed to the slight strengthening of Indonesia Rupiah against US Dollar. Malaysia's black and white pepper were reported stable aver aging at USD 1,705 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,059 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported stable and unchanged whilst Viet Nam white pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,347 per Mt. Following the significant weakening of Sri Lankan Rupee against US Dollar, Sri Lanka black pepper was traded with a 4% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,660 per Mt. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% and was traded at an average of USD 4,239 per Mt locally.
In contrary, international market showed a rather positively outlook with only India origin recorded a deficit. India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,440 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,819 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,129 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, contrary to local price, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 4%, 3% and 2% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,050 per Mt, USD 2,080 per Mt and USD 2,980 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as opposed to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 4,439 per Mt internationally. 

#PEPPER - IPC MARKET REPORT No. 14/20, 30 March - 3 April 2020

As Viet Nam reportedly implemented a total nation-wide lockdown, starting 1 April 2020, in response of trying to flatten the curve of Corona Virus spreading, market this week showed a mixed response as only Viet Nam was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,219 per Mt. The increase of Malabar black pepper price could be contributed to the slight strengthening of Indian Rupee against US Dollar. Following the social distancing policy implemented in Indonesia some major markets in Lampung and Bangka, two major producing area of black and white pepper, are closed. Consequently, Indonesia black pepper was reported with a slight increase of 2% as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 1,458 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 2,612 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as comp ared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,703 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,056 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with 2% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 1,577 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,381 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was traded with 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,766 per Mt which could be contributed to the weakening of Sri Lankan Rupee against US Dollar. China white pepper was reported stable and was traded at an average of USD 4,214 per Mt locally.
International market showed a rather stable outlook with only Indonesia origin recorded an increase. India black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,484 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,808 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 3,110 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable and unchanged. China white pepper was reported steady and was traded at an average of USD 4,414 per Mt.
Prices at US market this week was reported quite stable, though business had become slightly unpredictable and slow due to the nation-wide lockdown as US became country with the most active cases of Corona Virus with 228,874 (as of 3 April 2020) and 6,095 total death. Many pepper origins were still very cautious when prices were already at very low levels and unlikely to fall further when US Dollar strong against International local currencies. 

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BLACK PEPPER REPORT - HIGHLIGHT ON BRAZIL FEB 2020

Production and Productivity

Brazil, known as one of the major pepper producing countries which is famous for its Black Pepper, is known to have a more competitive price as opposed to other origins. In recent year, Brazil has also surpassed Indonesia as the second largest pepper producer in the world with estimated quantity of 80,000 Mt in 2019. Brazil's increase of production could be contributed to the output of the first harvest of new plantation planted in 2017.

During 2008-2020 the area under pepper cultivation in Brazil had fluctuated. Between 2008-2013, area under pepper cultivation in Brazil saw a decrease by 37% to a total of 18,472 Ha from 29,549 Ha in 2008. The area under pepper cultivation in Brazil saw an increasing trend during 2013-2018 with an increase of 65% to a total of 30,503 Ha. In the course of 11 years between 2008-2018 total area under pepper cultivation in Brazil recorded an increase by 3% (Table 7). Furthermore, in 2019 the area under pepper cultivation in Brazil was estimated to increase by 2% as compared to 2018 to a total of 31,040 Ha. Whilst, for the year 2020 the area of pepper cultivation was projected to decrease by 1% as compared to 2019. The decrease of area under pepper cultivation in Brazil could be contributed to farmers in the last two years have stopped expanding new plantation in Para Region and Espirito Santos Region which are the main producer of pepper in Brazil.

Brazil production of pepper during 2008-2020 was reported fluctuating with a rather positive trend. In the course 11 years since 2008 pepper production in Brazil was reported to have recorded an increase of 76% as it recorded a total of 72,000 Mt in 2018 which comprised of 68,500 Mt of black pepper and 3,500 Mt of white pepper. The highest production of Brazil pepper In the course of 11 years between 2008-2018 was reported in 2018 with 72,000 Mt whilst the lowest production occurred in 2012 with 32,000 Mt. However, in the year 2019 production of Brazil pepper was estimated to increase by 11% when compared with 2018 to a total of 80,000 Mt which comprised of 76,000 Mt of black pepper and 4,000 Mt of white pepper. Furthermore, in relation to the decrease of the area under pepper cultivation as well as the lack of care for pepper plantation by farmers, in 2020 Brazilian pepper production was projected to decrease by 3% when compared to 2019 to a total of 78,000 Mt.

Pepper productivity in Brazil In the course of 13 years between 2008-2020 was reported to be fluctuated with a rather positive trend. During 2008-2020, the lowest pepper productivity in Brazil was reported in 2008 with 1,388 Kg per Ha while the highest productivity was reported in 2019 which was estimated at 2,577 Kg per Mt. The lowest decrease of pepper productivity in Brazil was reported to occur in 2016 as it recorded a 19% loss when compared with the previous year. Whilst the highest increase of pepper productivity was reported in 2017 which recorded a 45% increase as opposed to the previous year. For the year 2019, Brazil pepper productivity was estimated with an increase of 9% to 2,577 Kg per Ha whilst in 2020 Brazil pepper productivity was projected with a slight decrease by 1% to 2,541 Kg per Ha .


Pepper Export from Brazil

Brazil, known as the second largest pepper producer in the world, had managed to take the second largest pepper exporter position from Indonesia in 2017. Since 2008 until 2019 there had been a significant increase of 131% or 48,091 Mt in the quantity of pepper export from Brazil which was mainly dominated with black pepper as it contributed to 94% of the total export figures (Table 8). The highest pepper export occurred in 2019 with 84,676 Mt whilst the lowest export occurred in 2012 with 29,129 Mt. In 2019, pepper export from Brazil was reported at 84,676 Mt, an increase by 17% as opposed to the previous year. Furthermore, as of February 2020, pepper export from Brazil was reported at 15,922 Mt which comprised of 15,285 Mt of black pepper and 637 Mt of white pepper, thus, recording a decrease of 8% as compared to the same period in 2019.

The number of pepper exports from Brazil had reportedly fluctuated in the last 14 months. The total export by Brazil in the past 14 months was reported at 100,597 Mt with total value as high as USD 210.4 Million. The average pepper export from Brazil was reported to be 7,186 Mt per month. The highest pepper export of Brazil occurred in October 2019 which reached 11,119 Mt whilst the lowest was reported in July 2019 with 3,046 Mt . The high level of exports during that period (October) correlated closely to Brazil harvest season.

Pepper from Brazil is exported to various countries in Asia, Europe, America and Africa (Table 10). During January 2019-February 2020, the top 10 country of destinations for Brazilian pepper were reported to be Viet Nam with 17,517 Mt (Contributed to 17% of the total pepper export during January 2019-February 2020), Germany with 13,127 Mt (13%), United States of America with 10,294 Mt (10%), Morocco with 7,817 Mt (8%), Egypt with 6,581 Mt (7%), India with 5,791 (6%), Mexico with 4,554 Mt (5%), Pakistan with 4,301 Mt (4%), United Arab Emirates with 3,779 Mt (4%) and France with 3,272 (3%).


Pepper Export Price

Brazil pepper export price had fluctuated significantly in the past three years which could be attributed to the world supply of pepper significantly exceeding the global demand. In 2018, the average pepper export price for Brazil was reported at USD 2,835 per Mt with the highest prices recorded in January with USD 3,509 per Mt whilst the lowest price was reported in November with USD 2,195 per Mt. In 2019, Brazilian average pepper export price was reported at USD 2,148 per Mt, recording a decreased of 24% as compared to 2018. In 2019, the highest average price was reported to have reached USD 2,316 per Mt (July 2019) whilst the lowest average price was reported in November with USD 2,002 per Mt. As of February 2020, the average pepper export price for Brazil was reported at USD 1,940 per Mt, recording a 12% decreased as compared to the same period in 2019


THIS REPORT PUBLISHED BY IPC
Basic information provided by Coreimex and CSG Trade

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#Coronavirus impact: Global pepper market witnessing a grim scenario

Rajesh Ravi |
March 18, 2020
Global pepper market is witnessing a grim scenario with no demand seen in the past two weeks as the coronavirus outbreak impacts its prices in Europe and the US, bringing down by 6-8 % in 2020. This could fall further with COVID-19 as it spreads to key markets of the US and Europe.

Jojan Malayil, chief executive officer of Kochi-based Bafna Enterprises, said the situation was very grim and buyers were not even asking for the rates.
“There is an extreme fear in the market and our regular buyers are in the wait and watch mode. Suppliers of spices in the US market fear a drop in demand if the disease spreads to more cities and people. Prices could drop further if the situation continues like this,” he said.

Jojan said Vietnam was offering American Spice Trade Association (ASTA) grade pepper for $1,950 per tonne, while Brazil and Indonesia are quoting lower than that. However, Rajiv Palicha of Nedspice India told FE that there was not much disruption in pepper trade except in container movements slowing down due to problems in China. “Prices of all spices have declined 8-10% and arrival of the new crop in pepper has added to the pressure. There is a slight slowdown in demand from China and Italy but overall, the trade has not seen big disruptions,” he added.

Pepper Crop Report by Nedspice in January 2020 reported that new crop arrivals were expected to peak between February and April putting further pressure on pepper prices over the upcoming months. The report added global production was estimated to drop by 12% this season, but the overall stocks were expected to be still well above the total market demand.

Palicha said domestic demand for pepper and trade has not so far been disrupted due to the virus outbreak. India is the largest consumer of pepper in the world and the second largest producer after Vietnam. Traders believe that a revival in Chinese demand could help support pepper prices to a certain extent in the short run.



Published: March 18, 2020 3:00:05 AM
https://www.financialexpress.com/market/commodities/








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#PEPPER #INDIA - Pepper imports from Brazil worry Indian growers

Kochi March 03, 2020

 #Coronavirus
Spice meet put off on virus scare

Pepper farming community has voiced concern over the presence of Brazilian pepper in India. It is reported that markets in Rajasthan, Gujarat, Delhi and Maharasthra are getting Brazilian pepper for re-export at ₹340 +GST paid and freight delivered at the buyer’s doorstep.
The price of Indian pepper comes to around ₹360. Traders claim Brazilian pepper has 600 gm/litre bulk density.

According to Kishore Shamji of Kishor Spices, pepper farmers are worried over the new entrant into the Indian markets, which is selling below the Vietnam pepper prices. The latter rules at $2,000 per tonne against the Brazilian pepper’s $1,800-1,900. It is estimated that over 600 tonnes of Brazilian pepper were imported into the country during December and January.

Normally, Vietnam bolder berries would slip into the domestic market as No 13 quantity that had snatched away Wayanadan and Karnataka pepper share from the domestic market.

Meanwhile, pepper prices in Kochi were down by ₹1 per kg with limited sellers from Kerala. The arrivals in the market was lower at 13 tonnes. The average price realised for ungarbled varieties was ₹308 per kg, while MG1 garbled stood at ₹328. New pepper was quoted at ₹298.
However, traders expect arrivals to pick up in the coming days, mainly from Wayanad and Karnataka, to be followed by Tamil Nadu.

Meanwhile, the coronavirus scare has forced organisers in Kochi to postpone the International Spice Conference 2020 slated to be held from March 8 to 11.
The organisers pointed out that many of the delegates from countries such as Italy, Europe, West Asia have informed their inability to attend the meet.

V Sajeev Kumar
The HinduBusinessLine

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VIETNAM - #PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 25TH FEB 2020 – WEEK 9;

#PEPPER:

Vietnam;
Pepper market firmer and increasing tone around 100$ from last week. Exporters have been covering short position for Feb/First Half March shipment beside some middleman/collectors buying huge quantity to keep stock. We heard some demand coming from China (Pay Full Tax) for prompt shipment that encourage farmers hold on and not offer in bulk. Good demand coming from Middle East/Nepal/India for March/April shipment especially black pepper 5mm bold cause shortage BOLD raw material in this time. USA customer more interesting to cover full year shipment but processor/exporters hesitate to offer long shipment. 

China;
The borderline start opening but not easy to clear cargo from trucking like before. The business in border trade maybe continue very tight until second quarter.

Brazil
Market uptrend continue and stock limited. Exporters cautious to offer second quarters shipment.

#PEPPER - SPICES MARKET UPDATE 21ST FEB 2020 – WEEK 8

Vietnam; Pepper market after being stable for 2 weeks, has shown more signs of bullish trend when prices have increased by about 40 - 50$/MT in the past 2 days.

Currently, the pepper harvesting spread all area in Vietnam, but it is expected to peak season arriving in next 2-3 weeks. However, Due to the low price of pepper, many farmers have lost money, they do not take well care and focus on harvesting as in previous years.

Many farmers harvesting by themselves instead of hire worker to reduce their labor costs. This will take to longer harvesting times than before and raw material of new crop to the market is very slow.

Most of the farmers only sell raw material as little as possible and this year's storage trend is much bigger than before. Although it is in pepper season that not easy to buy large quantities like before.

Exporters still have to covering raw material for February/FH March shipment so the price trend maybe stable in the next 1-2 weeks is foreseen.

The low price has also stimulated several agents, collectors as well as traders to buy more and stockpiling.

China; The borderline continues to close, but both governments Vietnam and China have regulations to make goods exchange and trading more favorable than before. We hope the Corona Virus will be shut down soon and the border trade will going smoothly in the next weeks.

India; We heard market firmer, Malabar black pepper an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week.

Indonesia;  Black and white pepper was reported stable.

Malaysia/Srilanka;  Black and white pepper with a 2% and 1% easier to the previous week

Brazil; Market uptrend, farmer/exporters hesitate to offer with discounting on the price. Stock we heard less and limited to offer March/April shipment.

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#BlackPepper - First Report after Lunar New Year

Vietnam; exported in the first half of January 2020 around 9,496 tons of pepper and possible export over 16,000 tons in January. That will be less than the same period 2019 (exported 19,773 tons) because Vietnam has a long holiday from 23rd to the end of January 2020.

Pepper market in general has slightly decreased because the carryover is still available while the new crop has started to harvest. It is expected that after a week more Daklak area will start to harvest, Daknong starting fully swing during this time. The supply of material to the market to be quite abundant from now to the end of March 2020.

However, it is difficult to predict the price when the pepper price is already very low, many farmers are at a loss and do not take care of the pepper plantation as before.

Manufacturers and exporters are quite cautious and rarely sell big short as in previous years because this price is not attractive, the profit margin is too low while the risk is high.

India; According to Cogencis, Pepper harvest in Kerala state has officially started in January 2020, but the output and quality of pepper are low due to adverse weather. Crop size in 2020 is forecast to increase by 30% from last year to 61,000 - 62,000 tons due to favorable weather in Kerala state.

According to Indian experts, pepper prices may decrease in the period February - March after the states of Kerala and Karnataka in the main season.
Brazil:In Brazil the strong fluctuations in the exchange rate in the last week, has contributed to some discounts below the level of the last week.
Against this favorable news for the importer, a week of heavy rains in ES(Port of Vitoria), affected the harvest and the delivery of dry black pepper and the weather forecast for February is not favorable
Further, the short availability of free containers and complicated documents processing are delaying contracted shipments.
The heavy rains cause a decrease in supply of pepper to local market, processors and exporters

It is generally understood that 60% to 70% of the ES crop has already been harvested.

Large consumer market;

China; Under the influence of the Corona virus and currently on the occasion of the Lunar New Year, almost all international border gates with Vietnam have closed. The quota trade with the pepper market was temporarily suspended. Demand for pepper from China, is expected to be very low/absent in the next 1-2 weeks.

America; High demand for whole year shipment, especially with delivery period in the second half of 2020. However, prices are not really attractive and risky, so some exporters in Vietnam are still hesitant.

Nepal & the Middle East; Great demand for 5mm bold berries pepper with immediate shipment while limited supply and raw material.

EU; Focus on buying with spot orders and not much quantity.

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Black pepper in Brazil January 17, 2019

This Thursday and Friday a "bunch"of enquiries was arriving for Brazilian Black Pepper, from different buyers (or agents) to different exporters all trying to  get cheap price.

Actually it is unknown the exact number of enquiries because one buyer usually asks 2 or 3 or 4 suppliers. They go to the market and create an illusion of a big demand.


Anyhow bids @1875, 1850 and even 1800 abound. However this fact has a contrary effect -such activity actualy turns the market stronger, with some reliable exporters stepping out waiting how things will evolve next week.
This because beyond new orders, there are exporters that sold short at the end of the year and now try to cover their commitments.


All-in-one this situation signals an uprising trend in  Brazilian Pepper price.
With Vietnam beginning the new Year celebrations a clearer picture might be seen ofter 2 weeks time.
MW

IPC MARKET REPORT No. 51/19, 16 - 20 December 2019

LOCAL MARKET
Market this week showed mixed responses with India and Viet Nam origins recorded with an increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was traded with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,746 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 1,750 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,035 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysian black and white pepper was traded negatively with 1% and 2% decreases respectively as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 1,840 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,258 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as opposed to the previous week with an average of USD 1,764 per Mt. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported steady at an average of USD 2,626 per Mt. After the continuous increasing trend lately, Sri Lanka black pepper was traded with marginal decrease and was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,822 per Mt. In the past four weeks China white pepper was continuously reported with a deficit and this week it was reported with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,350 per Mt.

INTERNATIONAL MARKET
International market reacted rather stable this week with only India recorded an increase. FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same increase of 1% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 5,027 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper was reported steady with an average of USD 2,167 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,616 per Mt for white pepper. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable at an average of USD 2,330 per Mt, USD 2,395 per Mt and USD 3,480 per Mt respectively. In international market China was reported with a higher deficit by 3% as opposed to the previous week with an average of USD 4,450 per Mt.

IPC MARKET REVIEW - November 2019

During the course of 11 years, spot price on New York markets fluctuated and was reported to firstly spike up in November 2011 with USD 8,556 per Mt for black pepper and USD 12,922 per Mt for white pepper which then followed with decreasing trend which lasted for 3 year. The spot price on New York market then started to gradually increase in the middle of 2013 until it peaked in July 2015 and recorded the highest price in history of the pepper industry with USD 11,333 per Mt for black pepper and USD 16,496 per Mt for white pepper. Following the peaked in July 2015, the spot prices of black and white pepper gradually decreased and lasted longer, compared with the previous trend, until the present time with USD 2,977 per Mt for black pepper and USD 5,072 per Mt for white pepper recorded in July 2019. Furthermore, in the course of 11 years the lowest spot price was reported in March 2009 with USD 2,568 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,025 per Mt for white pepper (Chart 10).

The shift in the stretching of the decreasing trend of pepper price in the past few years could be contributed to the significant increase of stock in the global market which imbalance with the demand for pepper. By the end of 2019, the global production of pepper is estimated to be 591,946 Mt.

DOWNLOAD THE FULL REPORT
www.mediafire.com/fi…/ydzut32v004vado/pnmrNov2019A4.pdf/file

TRYING TO UNDERSTAND BLACK PEPPER MARKET

A Client asked me today:

" Why Brazilian Black Pepper has been cheaper then Vietnam for such long time ?
I´ve been in the market for 6 years now and I never seen such situation !"

Well, neither I know.
I´ve been trying to understand the reasons but cannot find a reasonable answers for 2 questions:
Why brazilian pepper had been cheaper for all year long, and
Why Pepper price in general decreased that much in the last seasons ?

Average prices for B1 550g black pepper in 2002 were U$D 1,500/ton
Than in 2006/2007 it started to rise to U$D1,800 /U$R 2,000 / U$D 2,250... ended the 2007 quoted at U$D 3,700
After a relatively smooth 2008 and 2009 it climbed to U$D 4,200 at the end of 2010.
Beginning 2011 it went from U$D4,200 to U$D 7,000 and from then it was always quoted in the range ofU$  7 - 8,000, with a peak of U$D 9,000 in 2015.
In the middle of2017 it started to fall ending the year at U$D 3,600 and now is averaging U$D 2,000 - back to 12 years ago !
If inflation is considered, the present price is even lower that the one of 2002.

WHY ??? What happened to pull the prices to such behaviour ?  And what´s is to come now ???

Therefore I invite you to write a guess about these 2 questions and further try to make a preview for the next year or even more extended. Please write to manager@peppertrade.com.br

The answers for these questions will be published on our blog and FB page, and if you desire we´ll mention your name and mail adress.

Let´s see if we find a consensus

Thank you all
Michail Wagapoff

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