IPC PEPPER MKT REPORT No. 25/20, 15 - 19 June 2020

19 June 2020

LOCAL MARKET REPORT
Market this week showed mixed response with a rather negative outlook. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,141 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,182 per Mt. The increase of Indonesia pepper could be contributed to the increase of demand while the stocks were limited. In local currency, the price of Indonesia black pepper increased to an average of IDR 31,000 per Kg from IDR 30,000 per Kg in previous week. As this week Indonesia Rupiah depreciated by 1% against US Dollar, Indonesia white pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,132 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper in local market were reported with an increase of 4% and 2% respectively as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 1,834 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,205 per Mt for white pepper. Furt hermore, Viet Nam black pepper was reported with 3% deficit as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,135 per Mt whilst Viet white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,066 per Mt. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with 1% deficit when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 2,689 per Mt. China white pepper was reported stable and unchanged.
INTERNATIONAL  MARKET
International market showed a similar trend as the local market. India black pepper was reported with the same 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,404 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,657 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported with 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,721 per Mt. Contrary to the local market, internationally Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with 7% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,350 per Mt for black pepper and USD 4,800 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with 2%, 2% and 1% deficit respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,490 per Mt, USD 2,570 per Mt and USD 3,800 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported stable and unchanged.
Trade activity in US market this week was reported slowing down due to instability of origin prices, financial problems and local currencies. Muntok white pepper for CF July/August was reported at USD 4.150 per Mt. 

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IPC PEPPER MKT REPORT No. 24/20, 8 - 12 June 2020

LOCAL MARKET REPORT
Market this week showed mixed response with a rather positive outlook as only Malaysia origin was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,167 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with significant increase of 11% as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,134 per Mt. The increase of Indonesia pepper could be contributed to the increase of demand while the stock were limited as well as the strengthening of Indonesian Rupiah against US Dollar (IDR 14,057 @ USD 1), an appreciation by 1% recorded. In local currency, the price of Indonesia black pepper increased to an average of IDR 30,000 per Kg from IDR 27,500 per Kg in previous week. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 3,166 per Mt. Malaysia black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 1,726 per Mt whilst Malaysia white pepper was reported with slight increase of 1% when compared to the previous week at an average of USD 3,141 per Mt. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white peppers were reported with an increase of 2% and 3% respectively as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,199 per Mt and USD 3,023 per Mt respectively. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported stable and was traded at an average of USD 2,722 per Mt. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,225 per Mt locally.
INTERNATIONAL MARKET

International market showed a similar trend as the local market. India black pepper was reported with the same 1% increase as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,431 per Mt. Continuing the trend of the farm gate price, Indonesia black pepper was reported with significant increase of 10% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,605 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 3,761 per Mt. In response to the harvest season, Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with 2% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,601 per Mt for black pepper and USD 5,156 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l was reported stable with slightly increase averaging at USD 2,540 per Mt whilst Viet Nam black pepper 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,620 per Mt and USD 3,850 per Mt respectively. China white pepper was reported with an increase of 1% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,425 per Mt internationally.

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VIETNAM - PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 15TH JUNE - WEEK 25

Pepper market week 24 was down in value of about 2.7% due to a collectors in Daksong (main pepper area) which has lost liquidity and unable to pay deeply in debts.

This cause to a lots of farmers/middlemans in a panic and forced to close the consignment of goods at other collectors warehouse to recover cash to avoid the risk of consignment, causing the price to drop quickly by 2.5% in 1-2 days (the material from 55,000 VND has dropped sharply about VND 53,500 as of today).

After the shock reduction, the market seems to have regained its balance and the upward trend/stable continues to be clearly shown by the increasing demand from oversea importers during the past week. Despite difficulties due to Covid - 19, the new price level has been firmly established because good demand from the EU/ASIA market.

Through a quick survey in raw material area, we would like to briefly outline the situation as follows;

-  Vietnam's inventory is still large. However, the current inventory is scattered from many different person such as;

+ Farmer households (estimated to hold 15-20% of inventory). We assess this stock has no selling pressure as it is concentrated among the wealthiest households. Farmers can stockpiling if prices go down. Its as frozen stock already.

+ Top 10 big exporters keeping around 25,000 tons. Other exporters around 10.000 tons more. Total exporters keeping 30,000 - 35,000 tons (We do not know how much quantity has been sold)

+ Four large domestic agents are holding about 20,000 tons at least.

+ Total exported within fitst 5 months 2020 reach 148.000 tons.

Therefore, regardless of the number of pepper crop production in Vietnam 2020, currently total quantity offering for export is not much available in the last 6 months of 2020.

- Its not much difference in the situation of the new crop 2021 such as drought or heavy rain, and there are also favorable weather areas and disadvantages… However, the main point is many farmers neglect and do not take care of pepper plantation as before because the current price is not attractive enough to take care and maintain. This may be the most important reason for a decrease in production in the coming seasons 2021.

We will have more surveys situation in August & another in October. We hope to give more useful and accurate information in the crop year 2020/2021.

Other information for reference;

- Brazil Currency fluctuations are very erratic with large amplitudes. Currently, inventory available for sale was negligible. Almost had to wait for a new crop at Para at the end of August/September.

- Indonesia It is forecasted that the crop size less by 20% and will be harvested by the end of July. Few boxes maybe available for August shipment for testing market.

- India Reopening again after long time lockdown due to Covid 19. India's market demand continues to increase compared to previous months.

- China Continued to participate in the market, but was less than in June due to the complicated situation of Covid-19. However, we expect more demand will coming in the next 1-2 weeks.

- America continued to participate in the market with orders delivered in the second half of 2020.

- Asia/EU We expect increase from the EU when other origin do not have big quantity for immediate shipment.

- Vietnam currency stronger than USD is foreseen.

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VIETNAM - PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 08 JUNE - WEEK 24

The market has fluctuated throughout the week. However, at the end of the week 23, the market is still in an upward trend of nearly 2% from 54,000 VND on 1^st June and remained stable at 55,000 VND today. The domestic collectors continued to offer in small quantities and was hesitant in a tension between many exporters and domestic collectors/middleman.

After the price has changed dramatically in the last 2 weeks, the current price trend has become stronger and set a new price on the market. Oversea customers bought orders and looking for new inquiries in the third and fourth quarters 2020. However, the exporters was very cautious and only offer spot/prompt shipment instead of forwards shipment as before. Vietnam currency is still stronger trend than USD making Vietnam pepper price also higher.

Other information for your reference;

- In 2006; pepper price remained stable from January to May at 860 USD/MT. However, within 3 months, pepper price increased by 115% to 1,850 USD/MT (convert at current exchange rate).

- In 2011; the price of pepper at the beginning of the season was 4,340 USD but by the end of December it reached 7,122 USD. Increased 64%.

- In 2013 & 2014; the pepper prices at the beginning of the season reached 6,281 USD but increased 48% to 9,315$ in December.

2020;  Pepper prices still were at a loss for many farmers in this crop, a lot of farm households cut their pepper trees and converted other agriculture product. Currently, prices with increasing tendency have also stimulated farmers to take more care in their pepper plantation. However, the drought situation and many farmers who have changed to another product/cut their plantation not only in Vietnam but also other countries such as Indonesia/Brazil/Cambodia…We have a forecast that total crop production in 2021 will be significantly affected.

We will have a tour to survey the situation of pepper crop 2020 again from June 9 to June 17, 2020 and we will try to collect information to update you with the details in July.

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VIETNAM - PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 25TH MAY - WEEK 22 - TREND IS UP

Pepper market has continuously increased this month from VND 38,000 in early May to VND 48,500 at the present. Price increase was up to 28% within 25 days and up from the bottom of 35.5% (VND 34,500) within 2 months. A jump in prices is beyond the expectation of almost all pepper producers and exporters not only in Vietnam but also worldwide. The market increased last time mainly due to the following reasons;

- After lock down due to the Covid-19 epidemic, Chinese customers returned to buy both black and white pepper in huge quantities (March and April bought above 20.000 tones and May is around above 10.000 metric tones) . In particular, white pepper is being bought by many and continuously.

- Pepper was low level and is considered to have been at the bottom already (VND 34,500 - 1,510$), so many speculators actively bought huge quantities of stock. This also contributed significantly to the price increase last time.

- Due to the Covid - 19, some countries producing and exporting pepper have been continuously restricted as harvesting, processing, freight forwarding, logistic service. This also makes pepper sometimes suddenly shortage in each different time.

- At low prices and a lot of farmers making losses, many farmers have left and do not continue to take care of pepper as the previous time, besides the weather in the pepper areas is drought. Therefore, pepper production in 2021 is maybe less than the 2020 crop.

- Many exporters sold short for long time shipments who have not covered raw material yet. They have to buy to ensure time of shipment.

- Some big oversea customers have not yet purchased enough quantity for orders in the 3rd & 4th quarters, so they continue to participate in the market in the coming month.

- At present, the situation in Vietnam is controlling Covid 19 quite well. Transportation service, logistics smoothly and quickly. Therefore the oversea demand for spice products in Vietnam is gradually increasing.

- Although the inventories of Vietnam pepper are still quite large, however, we assess that the pressure of circulation of these inventories is very low due to being scattered from farmers, middlemen, exporters ... They are not in a hurry to sell or be ready to freeze inventory if the market price decreases.

- Even at this level many farmers/collectors still think attractive and they have been buying more quantity to stockpiling from last week until now.

- Currently, it is almost the only Vietnam can supply a large quantity to the market while Indonesia and Brazil are offering very limited and not possible prompt shipment. Therefore, the demand for Vietnamese pepper is expected to continue to increase until next July at least (Indonesia harvests in July, Brazil harvests the second crop in August 2020).

- Contrary to many other pepper exporting countries, Vietnam's currency has been consistently stronger than the USD with a 1% over the past week, that makes pepper prices also up.
In my opinion, pepper prices will continue uptrend until the end of June/July. There will be some short-term corrections in July/August.


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VIETNAM - PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 11TH MAY 2020 – WEEK 20

Within 1 week, pepper raw material increased rapidly by 11% at VND 39,000 on 4/5/2020 jumped to VND 43,500 at the end of last week.
On the Saturday, the price increased by 4% due to huge demand from Chinese trader as well as many exporters cover short position for orders delivered in May. However, on Sunday market sudden correction with softened around 2%.

Market opened today stable, farmers and domestic agents to offer small quantity cautiously and prefer to keep watching. On the contrary to many other pepper exporting countries, Vietnam currency was stronger than USD dollar in the past week when VND index up by 1%.

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VIETNAM - PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 27TH APRIL 2020

APRIL 27 2020
In the first half of April, Vietnam has exported 18,067 tons so maybe quantity export in April will reach 37-38,000 tons, bringing the total export volume in the first 4 months around 119,094 tons, an increase of over 10% compared with the same period in 2019.

Pepper market opened today with a 1% price increase compared to the end of last week due to strong demand from the Chinese. Many domestic speculators increased stockpiling that make marker very steady. Farmer/middleman offering raw material slowly and keep watching continue.

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VIETNAM - PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 13TH APRIL 2020 – WEEK 16

Global pepper market is forecast to be slow due to affected by COVID-19.
Disease movements are still complicated, especially in the US&Europe - the major pepper markets in the world, will cause less import demand. The global pepper market maybe continue  faces disrupted supply due to social isolation requirements and restrictions on clearance of cargo from many countries around the world.

Through a quick inspection again with Customs & Department of Agriculture and Rural Development, Vietnam has exported up to 42,330 tons of pepper in March (higher than the figures we forecast last week over 8.000 tons). The first quarter 2020 export reached 83,246 tons that increasing by 12.6% compare with the same period in 2019 (exported 72,726 tons). This is new records from Vietnam and very impressive for everybody too.

March also recorded a sharp increase in imports to more than 10,000 tons from Chinese, it’s biggest quantity was imported within 1 month from China until now. Details of export/import data each country, I will try to analyze and send you within end this week.

Pepper market opening today with less offer from domestic suppliers. Market very steady and China continue buying beside other countries like ASIA/USA/EU.

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VIETNAM -PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 6TH APRIL 2020 – WEEK 15

First half of March 2020, Vietnam has exported pepper reached 16,689 tons with a turnover 35.21 million USD. Pepper exported in the first 2.5 months reach 57,128 tons, up 5.75% in quantity but down 11.24% in value over the same period last year. The average export price reached 2,110 USD/ton, down 5.25% compared to the average export price of February 2020.

In March, export reached 34,000 tons, bringing the total export volume in the first 3 months of 2020 to approximately 75,000 tons (same period in 2019 was 72,726 ton). This is very impressive record of Vietnam's pepper exports although the export volume to China decreased by over 10,000 tons in the first 3 months because influence of Covid 19. Details of export/import data each country, we will update and send you in the coming week.

At present, Vietnam has basically finished harvested 2020 pepper crop. Farmers/domestic agents only offer a very small quantity to cover temporary costs and continue storage due to low prices. The price is attractive so many customer/exporters… considering to stockpile.

China has better control of Covid, so it has been actively buying large quantity from last week especially white pepper. In addition, the market continues to receive great demand from the USA/UAE for both prompt and further shipment that make market stable and uptrend. Vietnam's currency last week slightly stronger compared to USD but not stability.

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EXPORT OF PEPPER BY SINGAPORE

Singapore, officially the Republic of Singapore, is an island city-state in Southeast Asia. Although Singapore is not part of pepper producing country, Singapore exported a significant amount of pepper to the rest of the world.

In 2018, Singaporewas reported to have exported a total of 4,807 Mt of pepper from which 84% or 4,024 Mt of it comprised of whole pepper and 16% or 783 Mt of it ground pepper. Singapore on average exported a total of 401 Mt per month in 2018 which peaked in May with 699 per Mt. The total revenue of Singapore's export of pepper in 2018 was reported to be as high as USD 21.9 Million. Thus, recording an average price of the total pepper exported by Singapore at USD 3,698 per Mt for whole pepper and USD 9,052 per Mt for ground pepper.

Year 2019 saw a decrease in term of quantity of pepper exported by Singapore. Singapore was reported to have exported a total of 2,023 Mt of which 97% or 1,963 Mt of it comprised of whole pepper and 3% or 60 Mt of it ground pepper, recording a decrease of 58% when compared with 2018. The average export of pepper by Singapore in 2019 was reported to be at 169 Mt per month which also peaked in May with 287 per Mt. In accordance with decreasing in terms of quantity, Singapore's revenue from pepper export was also reported to have decreased by 71% as compared to the previous yearto a total of USD 6.3 Million. Thus, recording an average price of the total pepper exported by Singapore at USD 3,092 per Mt for whole pepper and USD 4,935 per Mt for ground pepper or a decrease by 16% and 45% respectively as compared with 2018.

As of January 2020, Singapore was reported to have exported a total of 126 Mt which 124 Mt of it comprised of whole pepper and or 2 Mt of it ground pepper. Thus, recording a decrease of 53% when compared to same period in 2019. The total revenue of pepper export by Singapore was reported to have reached USD 476,000, recording a decrease by 49% as compared to the same period in 2019. The average price of the total pepper exported by Singapore as of January2020 was reported at USD 3,760 per Mt for whole pepper and 5,000 per Mt for ground pepper.

Pepper from Singapore is widely traded in Asia, America, Europe and Africa. As of January 2020, Singapore's top 5 Country of destinations for its pepper were reported to be Nepal with 25 Mt (a decrease of 50% as compared to the same period in 2019), United States of America with 25 Mt (a decrease of 50%), Viet Nam with 17 Mt (2019 NA), Spain with 15 Mt (2019 NA) and Bangladesh with 10Mt (2019 NA). The significant decrease of export to United States of America was the result of United States of America starting to shift importing pepper from pepper origins countries such as Viet Nam (an increase by55 Mt or 2% as compared to the same period in 2019) and India (an increase by 42 Mt or 11%).

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#PEPPER - IPC MARKET REPORT No. 14/20, 30 March - 3 April 2020

As Viet Nam reportedly implemented a total nation-wide lockdown, starting 1 April 2020, in response of trying to flatten the curve of Corona Virus spreading, market this week showed a mixed response as only Viet Nam was reported with a decrease. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase of 1% when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,219 per Mt. The increase of Malabar black pepper price could be contributed to the slight strengthening of Indian Rupee against US Dollar. Following the social distancing policy implemented in Indonesia some major markets in Lampung and Bangka, two major producing area of black and white pepper, are closed. Consequently, Indonesia black pepper was reported with a slight increase of 2% as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 1,458 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 2,612 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper were reported with an increase of 1% respectively as comp ared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,703 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,056 per Mt for white pepper. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with 2% deficit respectively when compared to the previous week and was traded at an average of USD 1,577 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,381 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was traded with 1% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 2,766 per Mt which could be contributed to the weakening of Sri Lankan Rupee against US Dollar. China white pepper was reported stable and was traded at an average of USD 4,214 per Mt locally.
International market showed a rather stable outlook with only Indonesia origin recorded an increase. India black pepper was reported stable at an average of USD 4,484 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with an increase of 2% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,808 per Mt whilst Indonesia white pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 3,110 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable and unchanged. China white pepper was reported steady and was traded at an average of USD 4,414 per Mt.
Prices at US market this week was reported quite stable, though business had become slightly unpredictable and slow due to the nation-wide lockdown as US became country with the most active cases of Corona Virus with 228,874 (as of 3 April 2020) and 6,095 total death. Many pepper origins were still very cautious when prices were already at very low levels and unlikely to fall further when US Dollar strong against International local currencies. 

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INDIA - Spice industry faces huge crisis after suspension of exports in wake of COVID-19

While Gulf countries had already suspended cardamom import, the export of cardamom, pepper and other spices has now been temporarily suspended due to coronavirus fears.

Even as the COVID-19 pandemic spreads across the globe and India has announced a nation-wide lockdown, the spice industry is facing a huge setback. Farmers and traders are facing an enormous crisis after the export of cardamom, pepper and other spices was temporarily suspended due to coronavirus fears.

Last week the Spices Board suspended the cardamom e-auctions scheduled at e-auction centres at Bodinayakanur in Tamil Nadu and Puttady in Kerala with immediate effect until March 31. This has only added to the farmers’ woes. Within a week, the price of cardamom dropped by more than Rs 1,000 per kg. Till the last week of January, the price of cardamom was nearly Rs 4,000 to 4,500 per kg in the retail market. But now it fallen to Rs 2,000 to Rs 2,300. Pepper prices also fell to Rs 290 from Rs 330 per kg. Vendors are also not willing to buy spices such as cardamom, pepper and coffee from farmers.

Johny Joseph Vattathara, who runs Spice More Trading Company in Kumily in Kerala’s Idukki which trades in black pepper, cinnamon, cardamom and coffee, said that the COVID-19 pandemic has severely affected the spices trading and market. “Cardamom is mainly exported to Gulf countries. When COVID-19 started spreading across the world, the Gulf countries temporarily suspended cardamom import from other countries. We lost many export orders from the Gulf, presently we have no idea when the issue will be resolved,” he said.

Cardamom is firstly bought by vendors from Tamil Nadu and they export the product to other countries including the Gulf. But after the coronavirus scare, foreign countries stopped buying cardamom and the price continues to dip,” Johny added.

“Now the auctions have been suspended in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, so the movement of spices from Idukki district has stopped entirely. In the last cardamom auction, the average price quoted was only Rs 2,336 per kg,” Johny said.

Idukki district in Kerala is India’s largest producer of cardamom. Most of the natives in Idukki are farmers and live solely on income from agricultural produce. So when the traders stopped purchasing spices from them, the farmers are now in dire straits.

Small-scale traders are also upset over the present situation in the spices industry. “We vendors normally purchase spices from the farmers. But now we don’t know how to sell the products purchased through auction. With the lockdown in place, the market will also be suspended till April 14. We have already purchased and stored huge amounts of cardamom and pepper from the farmers. Now we don’t know when we’ll be able to sell it to wholesalers,” said MJ Joseph Mattapparampil, a spices vendor in Idukki.

AA George, a cardamom vendor, said, “In the present situation we can’t buy cardamom or other spices from the farmers. We don’t know when we can sell to wholesale vendors or through auction. The vendors have also stocked large quantities of cardamom and they are facing a big problem in selling their product.”

“Because of the COVID-19 pandemic, there is trade uncertainty in all countries and this will affect the import of cardamom and other spices. In the present situation, the vendors are not willing to purchase,” George added.

PM Thomas, a farmer, said, “Agriculture is my only source of income. But three days ago I tried to sell 10 kg of pepper but no vendor was ready to buy the product. I don’t know how to manage the situation.”

This report by
https://www.thenewsminute.com

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