As demand outstrips supply and imports become expensive, black pepper prices have risen, prompting growers to resort to hoarding in anticipation of bigger profits. That in turn is increasing prices even more.
PK KRISHNAKUMAR AUGUST 11, 2023
Shrinking stock in the North Indian markets, drying up of illegal imports, hoarding and anticipated shortage in the next season due to the El Nino impact, have all pushed up black pepper prices in the country past Rs 600 per kg after a gap of several years.
The current year has seen the prices of several spices such as chilli, cumin, ginger and turmeric rally. Black pepper is the addition to the list. Black pepper prices have remained between Rs 400 and 500 per kg for some years now. Last year it spiked to over Rs 500 per kg before falling. This week, the price has climbed to Rs 625 per kg.
Pepper output in India this year, at about 64,000 tonnes, is said to be normal. The production in India has remained stagnant in the last few years but consumption has been rising annually and is much above the production level. Karnataka, followed by Kerala are the major pepper producing states. But the crop in Kerala, particularly in Idukki district, has come down with many farmers shifting to cardamom, which is more remunerative.
Higher consumption, to a certain extent, is met through imports, much of it illegal. Pepper import for use in the local market carries heavy duties ranging from 50 to 70 percent and a minimum import price of Rs 500 per kg from different countries such as Vietnam, Brazil and Sri Lanka, where the spice is cheaper. Pepper from these countries reaches India illegally by road from Myanmar or Nepal or through misdeclaration as other goods to evade duties during shipment.
``Strict monitoring by the Centre has checked illegal imports into the country. As a result, the stock in the North Indian market has diminished. This has led to an increase in the prices,’’ said Jojan Malayil, owner of Aromatics Products.
As prices started to rise a few weeks ago, growers began to hold on to the stock, pushing the rates up further. The festival season demand after September is expected to spur the prices again in the coming months. Industry expects the prices to reach Rs 650 per kg or more.
``The rally is partly driven by sentiment as the other spices have become dearer. Pepper prices had been flat for the past several years. With low supply, it has become a seller’s market. Also, there are concerns on the impact of EL Nino on the next (year's) production. We can get a correct assessment only by October-November,’’ said Gulshan John, MD of Nedspice India.
The pepper prices in Vietnam, the largest producer, and Brazil, the next biggest grower, are around Rs 300 per kg. Since the import is duty-free against export, Indian pepper exporters have been depending on the pepper from other origins for value addition and shipment. But still the Indian consignments are comparatively high priced in the global market, causing the pepper exports to remain low in the last few years.
Indian pepper exports dropped 18 percent year-on-year in FY23 to 17,958 tonnes. Exports touched 21,863 tonnes in FY22, helped by cheaper Vietnam pepper. But a rise in the prices of Vietnam pepper since, have curbed imports to India for export.
``This year too, Vietnamese farmers are holding back produce, though their production is higher. Even the Brazilian crop is good. But there is no aggressive selling. Maybe they are anticipating an increase in prices since the excess stock purchased during the corona pandemic years by consuming countries is almost exhausted,’’ said Cherian Xavier, MD of Plant Lipids, a major spice oleoresin exporter.
As per the research reports of Nedspice, the Netherlands-based spice processing and distribution company, global pepper production in 2023 at 5,20,000 tonnes will be lower by 10,000 tonnes than the total demand. Stocks at destinations and origin will still be sufficient to meet near-term demand, though increased interest rates are not favourable to speculators and those holding large stocks, the report said.
It pegs Vietnam production at 2,05,000 tonnes, 9 percent higher than the previous year. Brazil’s production is estimated at 1,12,000 tonnes, 5.4 percent higher from a year before. India’s production and Indonesian production at 64,000 tonnes and 42,000 tonnes respectively will be slightly lower than the previous year.
According to the report, the current market situation is uncertain although the long-term price trend is likely to be up because of decreasing global production.
PK KRISHNAKUMAR is a journalist based in Kochi.
https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/economy/black-pepper-prices-spike-likely-to-rise-further-11160931.html
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