VIETNAM - a preliminary survey of inventory situation and forecast next year's pepper crop

Through a preliminary survey of inventory situation and forecast next year's pepper crop, we would like to give you some information in the main material areas for references as follows;

1 / Daklak (38,616 hectares) & Daknong (36,300 hectares);
- The total area of these two provinces are 74,916 hectares – occupy around 50% Vietnam's pepper area (148.744 hectares as previous report)
- Due to favorable weather and pepper vines are in the good shape period (new pepper planting from 2013 to 2015), the expected output 2020 will increase by over 10% compared with 2019.
- Total pepper area is almost unchanged because farmers continuing to cultivate/plant new trees to take place of dead pepper vines.

2 / Dong Nai Province (19,022 hectares) & Ba Ria Vung Tau (13,161 hectares);
- These are the two provinces adjacent Ho Chi Minh City, so land prices have increased rapidly since 2017/2018. Many locations increased from 2 to 6 times within 1 - 2 years. Many farmers have sold their pepper plantation or converted their land purpose such as; building factories/warehouses/ for renting... The total area of pepper cultivation is expected to decrease by at least 20%.

3 / Binh Phuoc Province (17,178 hectares);
- Planting area has little change but the weather supporting for new crop. However, due to low prices, farmers did not focus on pepper cultivation as before.

4 / Gia Lai Province (16,267 hectares)
- Since 2017, the pepper plantation of Gia Lai province has continuously decreased sharply due to farmers' inexperience in pepper cultivation, a lot of pepper was dead but farmers could not cultivate another pepper tree due to soil in serious disease and the weather did not support pepper plants in this province.
- Previously, Gia Lai was the pepper capital of Vietnam due to the hot development but now many farmers/collectors… are facing worse financially situation such as; have to sell land/their house/ pepper plantation to pay loans from the bank, black credit ...
- It is expected that production will be decreased by 60% in the next crop and likely pepper crop in Gia Lai province not possible to recover in the next few years.

5/ Another 8,200 hectares in 17 diffirent area;
- 8.200 hectares scattered in many different provinces with constant natural conditions, we temporarily assess the output is similar compared to 2019.


Summary;
- Total output declines in most areas in Vietnam. Only Daklak and Daknong, production is expected continue to increase due to favorable weather conditions, pepper is in a healthy phase although farmers reduce fertilization/pesticides. Currently, these two provinces occupy 50% of Vietnam's pepper area but total production will around 60% - 65% at least in the next crop 2020.

- Although pepper prices now has decreased roughly 25% compared to January 2019, farmers in key areas still suppose pepper as a major agricultural and they could not convert to another agriculture product in nearest future.

- In most of the surveyed farmers/collectors/speculators, there are still has a lot of inventories, even inventories from 2017. Many different forecasts on specific numbers but we will not be surprised if carry over this year is above 70 - 80.000 metric tones. This is also an impact on raw material prices in the coming year.

- Expected Daksong district of Daknong province will be harvested during second half of December 2019. The main crop of Vietnamese pepper remains unchanged after Lunar New Year in February & March 2020.

- Vietnamese pepper quality is improving due to price now very low, almost farmers have to reduce fertilizer, not use pesticides to reduce their production costs.

- The total cultivated area may be reduced from 10% - 15% and crop size maybe reach around 250 – 270.000 metric tones in 2020.

- Price now very attractive and maybe continue come down in peak season next crop, however, the importer/buyers not much risky like before. My own opinion stockpile should be under consideration.

We will continue to update crop/inventory if any changes.

WHATSAPP +5511988027709
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IPC MARKET REPORT No. 40/19, 30 September - 4 October 2019

LOCAL MARKETS
Market this week showed mixed response with Indonesia recorded the lowest deficit for its black pepper. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported stable averaging at USD 4,565 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported to be traded negatively and was reported with the lowest ever prices in recent years. Recording a 10% deficit as opposed to the previous week at an average of USD 1,622 per Mt. The significant decrease in price of black pepper in Indonesia was as result of harvest period currently in full swing which flooded the market with product. Thus, pressuring the price in the local currency to an average of IDR 23,000 per Kg from IDR 25,500 per Kg in the previous week. Indonesia white pepper was reported with a 1% deficit when compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,279 per Mt. Malaysian black and white pepper were reported with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,002 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,516 per Mt for white peppe r. Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were reported with a decrease by 2% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,726 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,625 per Mt for white pepper. Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with a 1% increase as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,398 per Mt.

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
In international market, the trend also showed mixed response as only Viet Nam reported an increase. FOB price of India black pepper was reported steady at an average of USD 4,847 per Mt. Indonesia black pepper was reported with a 9% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,018 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with a 1% deficit when compared with the previous week at an average of USD 3,885 per Mt. Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged. Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with an increase by 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,218 per Mt, USD 2,283 per Mt and USD 3,368 per Mt respectively.

WHATSAPP +5511988027709
MAIL manager@peppertrade.com.br
TWITTER : https://twitter.com/peppertrade

Star Anise Seeds

New crop staraniseeds from Vietnam is available. For this product there are 2 crops (autumn & spring); autumn crop is the far better quality in colour, size and overall appearance. The best growing area is Lang Son, here we find the premium qualities.

Van der Does
http://doesspice.com/

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Pepper prices falling due to increasing global supply

From the beginning of the year until now, pepper exports recorded a sharp decline in almost all markets, but there were positive signs in the EU.  According to the latest information from the Department of Agricultural Product Processing and Market Development, in the first 8 months of 2019, the estimated export volume of pepper was 220,000 tons (561 million USD), up 27.4% in volume but decreasing 3.8% in value over the same period in 2018. Notably, the average export price of pepper in the period reached 2,556 USD / ton, down 24.5% over the same period in 2018.
The Import and Export Department (Ministry of Industry and Trade) said pepper prices were falling due to increasing global supply. However, in Vietnam, the quality of pepper is affected by excessive use of chemicals and pesticides, so the price is lower than that in other countries.
In the past 2 years, many countries such as Brazil, India, and Indonesia have become competitors to Vietnam in terms of output and quality. In particular, Brazilian pepper is better quality with 80% of the world market selling organic standards.
While the price of pepper is still very low, the cost of producing pepper tends to increase. Vietnam's pepper production cost in 2018 increased by at least 10% compared to 2017. The selling price of pepper decreased by over 30%, causing huge difficulties for pepper growers.
The Agro Processing and Market Development Department said in the first 8 months of 2019 pepper exports to Germany increased: in the first 7 months, reached 8,000 tons, equivalent to USD 23.4 million, up 53.3% in volume and 14.4% in value over the same period in 2018. Germany increased imports of pepper to serve the growing pepper processing industry in this country.
The successful signing of the Vietnam-EU Free Trade Agreement (EVFTA) will be a good opportunity for Vietnam's pepper industry.  As part of the agreement, EU countries commit to eliminating tariffs on pepper products (HS code 09.04) right after it comes into effect. Opportunities for Vietnamese export will increase due to the agreement.
Typically, Metalaxyl chemical residues were found on pepper imported into the European market. Previously, the maximum permitted amount of Metalaxyl chemicals on pepper imported into the EU was 0.1 ppm, but the European Commission (EC) has requested to adjust this level to 0.05 ppm. By 2018, only 46% of Vietnam's pepper has met the export standards. Besides, Vietnam still faces the risk of origin of imported pepper products from third markets. Vietnam imports pepper from other producing countries, accounting for about 10% of Vietnam's total pepper exports, mainly for processing.
In the domestic market, prices of pepper fluctuated in August. Compared to the previous month, prices of pepper in Dak Lak, Dak Nong, Gia Lai and Ba Ria Vung Tau decreased by VND 500 / kg to VND 43,500 - 45,500 / kg. Pepper prices in Dong Nai decreased by VND 1,000 / kg to VND 43,000 / kg.

From https://www.freshplaza.com/article/9148608/pepper-prices-falling-due-to-increasing-global-supply/

Agroberichten Buitenland
Tel: +31 (0)70 379 8911
Email: agroberichtenbuitenland@minlnv.nl 
www.agroberichtenbuitenland.nl

Publication date: Mon, 30 Sep 2019

IPC MARKET REPORT No. 39/19, 23 September - 27 September 2019

LOCAL MARKET

Market this week showed mixed response as only India with an increase. In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase by 1% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,582 per Mt. Indonesia black and white pepper were reported to be traded stable with an average of USD 1,804 per Mt and USD 3,325 per Mt respectively.
Malaysian black and white pepper were reported with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,025 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,550 per Mt for white pepper.
Furthermore, Viet Nam black and white pepper were also reported with a decrease by 1% and 6% respectively as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 1,765 per Mt for black pepper and USD 2,669 per Mt for white pepper. The significant decrease in price of white pepper in Viet Nam was contributed to the decreasing in average price of Viet Nam white pepper in the local currency with an average of VND 63,500 per Kg from VND 67,500 per Kg in the previous we ek or a decrease by VND 4,000 per Kg.
Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 2,377 per Mt. Whilst,
China white pepper was reported to be traded with an average of USD 4,645 per Mt.


INTERNATIONAL MARKET
In international market, FOB prices of most origin were reported stable with only India reported an increase.
FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 1% increase as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,864 per Mt.
Indonesia black and white pepper were reported steady averaging at USD 2,227 per Mt for black pepper and USD 3,938 per Mt for white pepper.
Malaysia black and white pepper continued to be traded stable and unchanged.
Furthermore, Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were also reported stable.
China traded its white pepper in the international level with an average of USD 4,845 per Mt. 








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FROM VIETNAM- PEPPER MARKET UPDATE 16TH SEPT 2019.

Vietnam
According to customs and VPA data, Vietnam has exported 19,456 of which 17,460 tons were black pepper and 1,996 tons were white pepper, the exports in August reached 46 million $.
Compared to the previous month, exports decreased by 17.1% in volume and 18.8% in value…

The tightening of border trade in China recently make sharp decrease export to China.
In August, pepper exports to China only 1,312 tons, less 5,000 tons compared to July.
Meanwhile, US pepper imports increased from 3,686 tons in July to 4,635 tons in August. It is also biggest market of Vietnam pepper.
The next major import markets follows as India, Arab, Turkey, Germany ...

Pepper market was down sharply from last week due to a lots of raw material stuck in China border, many container/trucking could not deliver and have to return and kept in Vietnam collectors warehouse.
Border clearance come to a standstill and we don’t know when go smoothly again.
Other information: Many collectors/middleman stockpiling coffee and beginning this month is loan maturity so they have to sell other agriculture product to cover temporary tight financial situation.

Brazil: Pepper price is most competitive as usual due to Real too weak compare with USD.
Difficult to other origin as Vietnam/Indonesia in pepper price when currency still keeping steady.

Indonesia:
Market up significantly when crop 2019 has finished. Business very slow as we heard due to price not competitive.

WHATSAPP +5511988027709
MAIL manager@peppertrade.com.br
TWITTER : https://twitter.com/peppertrade

IPC MARKET RPORT No. 37/19, 9 September - 13 September 2019

LOCAL MARKETS
Market this week showed mixed response.
In local market, Malabar black pepper was reported with an increase by 1% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 4,604 per Mt.
Indonesia black pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as compared to previous week with an average at USD 1,923 per Mt, In local currency, Indonesia black pepper was traded with an average of IDR 27,000 per Kg decreasing marginally by IDR 500 per Kg. Whilst, Muntok white pepper was reported with an increase by 1% as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 3,419 per Mt.
Malaysian black and white pepper were reported stable averaging at USD 2,062 per Mt and USD 3,604 per Mt respectively.
Viet Nam black pepper was reported with a decrease by 1% as compared to last week, averaging at USD 1,829 per Mt. Whilst, Viet Nam white pepper was reported stable with an average of USD 2,839 per Mt.
Furthermore, Sri Lanka black pepper was reported with a 2% deficit as opposed to the previous week with an average of U SD 2,407 per Mt.
China white pepper was reported stable and unchanged.

INTERNATIONAL MARKETS
In international market, FOB price of India black pepper was reported with the same 1% increase as compared to the previous week at an average of USD 4,884 per Mt.
Indonesia black pepper was reported with a 1% deficit as compared to the previous week averaging at USD 2,364 per Mt. Whilst, Indonesia white pepper was reported with an increase by 1% as compared to the previous week with an average of USD 4,044 per Mt.
Malaysia black and white pepper continued stable and unchanged. Furthermore,
Viet Nam black pepper 500 g/l, 550 g/l and Viet Nam white pepper were reported with a decrease by 2%, 1% and 1% respectively as opposed to the previous week averaging at USD 2,226 per Mt, USD 2,291 per Mt and USD 3,376 per Mt respectively.
China traded its white pepper stable in the international level with an average of USD 4,975 per Mt.

 

WHATSAPP +5511988027709
MAIL manager@peppertrade.com.br
TWITTER : https://twitter.com/peppertrade